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Forex World News : USD/CHF Price Weak Bullish Pressure Leads to Ranging Movement

USD/CHF Price Weak Bullish Pressure Leads to Ranging Movement at $0.91 Level

Date : 2021 / 07 / 27

USDCHF Long-term trend: Bearish

 

USDCHF is bearish on the long-term outlook. The currency pair was increasing last two weeks when the US Dollar gain strength. The bulls pushed the price above the $0.91 level and tested the $0.92 resistance level. The bulls lose momentum and could not break up the $0.91 resistance level. The price consolidates for few days before the bears were able to push the price below $0.91 level. It seems the price is returning to $0.90 price level.

The currency pair is trading below the two EMAs. However, the 9 periods EMA remains above the 21 periods EMA which indicate that, it may be a pullback. The Relative Strength Index period 14 is at 50 levels bending up to indicate buy signal. Further increase in the Bulls’ momentum will increase the USDCHF price which may reach the resistance level at $0.92, 0.93 levels and may extend to $0.94 level. In case the bears defend the resistance level of $0.91, then, $0.92 and $0.93 level may be tested.

 USDCHF Medium-term Trend: Ranging

USDCHF is ranging in the medium-term outlook. The currency pair could not increase further due to weak bullish momentum. It finds it difficult to decrease because the bears’ pressure is weak. The currency pair continue to engage in a ranging movement around the resistance level of $0.91.
The 9 period EMA is interlocked to the 21 periods EMA, USDCHF is hovering over the two EMAs. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index period 14 is at 50 levels with signal line pointing upward to indicate buy signal.

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Forex World News : Dollar on track for weekly gain amid virus concerns

Dollar on track for weekly gain amid virus concerns

Date : 2021 / 07 / 16

The dollar was headed for a weekly gain on Friday

 

The dollar index, tracking the greenback against major currencies, is on course for a 0.5% gain this week, which would be close to its biggest weekly gain in about a month. It was broadly flat on the day at 92.530.

Solid U.S. data and a shift in interest rate expectations after the Federal Reserve flagged in June sooner-than-expected hikes in 2023 have put a floor under the greenback over the past month and made investors nervous about shorting it.

The gains came despite Fed Chair Powell reiterating on Thursday that rising inflation was likely to be transitory and that the U.S. central bank would continue to support the economy.

“Clearly the U.S. dollar has got some power behind it,” said Westpac strategist Imre Speizer. “And I think that’s holding back all the majors.”

“There’s an interest rate side to it,” he said. “And sometimes it’s a safe-haven bid…we do feel that the U.S. dollar’s going to be quite strong over the next few months.”

Traders will be watching out for U.S. retail sale figures for June due later this session and looking for any reading on inflation and the strength of the recovery.

“This will be a crucial determinant of growth in the future. As the fiscal boost from extraordinary government spending fades, the burden of supporting the economy falls on the consumer, who may well be unemployed still,” said Marshall Gittler, head of investment research at BDSwiss.

The New Zealand dollar was one of the big gainers during the Asian trading session after data showed consumer prices rose far faster than expected, prompting some in the market to bet on a rate hike as soon as August.

It gained as much as 1% versus the U.S. dollar and was last up 0.7% at $0.70270.

 

Currency moves were more muted elsewhere, with the dollar gaining around a fifth of a percent on the Japanese yen, last at 110.08 yen. The euro was broadly flat against the dollar at $1.18165.

Cryptocurrencies found support but were close to the bottom of recent ranges with bitcoin at $31,486.

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Forex World News : (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate to Drop Lower on US Tapering Hints?

Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate to Drop Lower on US Tapering Hints?

Date : 2021 / 07 / 14

GBP/USD Exchange Rate to Fall as Fed Stance Revealed?

 

The Pound (GBP) has risen this morning against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of positive UK inflation data. Investors now await the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to inform further trading.

At the time of writing, the Pound (GBP) trades at $1.3856, up 0.3% from today’s opening levels.

 

US Dollar (USD) Set to Gain on Hawkish Powell Testimony

GBP/USD trading is subdued this morning as investors wait for Chairman Powell’s testimony in order to gauge US Dollar prospects. The testimony is on everybody’s radar, as it may hint at when the bank is likely to consider tapering its $120 billion/month bond-buying scheme.

Rob Carnell, ING’s Head of Research for the Asia-Pacific region, remarks:

‘Against the background of higher, longer U.S. inflation, a taper coming earlier seems to be the likely direction of travel as far as policy goes.’

Not everyone is convinced though, as economists at JP Morgan and the Navy Federal Credit Union agree that inflation appears to be transitory, in line with Fed expectations.

If Powell strikes a more dovish tone at this afternoon’s testimony, Greenback support may fade. On the other hand, if higher prices are perceived to be persistent and the Fed indicates imminent tapering, USD prospects could be boosted.

 

British Pound (GBP) Holding Steady on Better-Than-Expected UK Inflation Data

The printing of UK inflation data this morning revealed that inflation grew by 2.5% in June, above estimates of 2.2%. The news has helped the Pound to rebound against the US Dollar after America reported significant inflation of its own during yesterday’s session.

Sterling gains are likely to be limited through the rest of today’s session. Bank of England (BoE) economists are faced with a decision regarding monetary policy, but will unlikely take immediate action as per earlier remarks that inflation will peak above 3% before falling back.

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Forex World News : Dollar Gains as Growth Concerns Prompt Risk Aversion

Dollar Gains as Growth Concerns Prompt Risk Aversion

Date : 2021 / 07 / 09

The dollar pushed higher in early European trade Friday with the safe haven benefiting

 

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 92.505, just shy of Wednesday’s three-month high at 92.844.

USD/JPY was up 0.3% at 110.06, EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1827, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.1% to 0.7419, adding to Thursday’s 0.7% decline and just above the fresh low for the year at 0.7410. 

Concerns have been growing that the fast-spreading delta variant of the Covid-19 virus could hamper a global economic revival that is already showing pockets of weakness.

These worries resulted in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falling to its lowest in nearly five months at 1.25% late Thursday, pressuring the dollar, but has since rebounded to 1.34%. It was as high as 1.54% just two weeks ago.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told the Financial Times in an interview published on Friday that: “One of the biggest risks to our global growth going forward is that we prematurely declare victory on Covid.”

“If the global economy . . . can’t get . . . higher rates of vaccination, really get Covid behind [us], then that’s a headwind on U.S. growth,” Daly added.

Japan has already declared a state of emergency for Tokyo as cases rise, meaning that the upcoming Olympic Games will go ahead largely without spectators. Southeast Asia is now suffering record rises in deaths and cases, while infections are also rising in the likes of the U.K. and the U.S.

“New outbreaks are still one of the biggest downside risks in terms of the sustained economic recovery moving forward,” Mathias Cormann, secretary-general of the OECD, said Thursday.

Evidence of the patchy nature of the economic recovery came with the weekly U.S. unemployment data on Thursday, as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week.

Additionally, GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.3768 after the U.K. economy grew less than expected in May, with the country’s flash GDP estimate showing an expansion of 0.8%, a slowdown from the growth of 2% the month before, which was revised down.

Elsewhere, USD/CNY fell 0.1% to 6.4881, after China’s consumer price index grew a smaller-than-expected 1.1% year-on-year in June, while contracting a bigger-than-expected 0.4% month-on-month. Meanwhile, the producer price index grew 8.8% year-on-year, remaining uncomfortably high as Beijing tries to bolster a post-coronavirus revival.

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Forex World News : Dollar Edges Lower Tone Still Supportive Ahead of Payrolls

Dollar Edges Lower Tone Still Supportive Ahead of Payrolls

Date : 2021 / 07 / 02

The dollar has given back some of it’s recent gains in early European trade Friday

 

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 92.558, having climbed to a three-month high during the previous session.

USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 111.57, just below a new 15-month high, EUR/USD edged down to 1.1846, just above a three-month low, GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3771, near a fresh two-and-a-half month low, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was flat at 0.7469, near the lowest since December.

The dollar has been supported over the last couple of days by strong U.S. employment data, bringing into question the assumption that U.S. interest rates can stay at ultra-low levels for years.

Applications for U.S. state unemployment insurance fell last week by more than expected, according to data released Thursday, with initial jobless claims falling by 51,000 to 364,000, reaching a fresh pandemic low as the economy reopens.

This followed Wednesday’s private payrolls release, which showed U.S. companies hired 692,000 new employees in June, more than the 600,000 generally expected.

This brings into focus the official U.S. nonfarm payrolls release, due at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT), which is expected to show another weighty rise of 700,000 jobs in June, an improvement from the 559,000 jobs added the previous month.

However, with both the ADP and the weekly jobless claims coming in better than expected, market chat has been suggesting a higher payrolls figure. This would likely benefit the dollar given Federal Reserve policymakers have made the labor market the cardinal factor in determining monetary policy..

“The recent FOMC meeting suggests the Fed’s trigger-finger will be a little twitchier when it comes to tapering,” said analysts at ING, in a note, “but unless the NFP figure comes in close to the one million mark, financial markets will probably be set fair for a low volatility summer.”

Elsewhere, EUR/SEK rose 0.1% to 10.171 and USD/SEK climbed 0.2% to 8.5892 after Sweden’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate and asset-purchase program unchanged on Thursday, and signaled that it’s in no hurry to tighten.

“The Riksbank will be towards the back of the pack when it comes to central bank tightening,” ING added.

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Forex World News : Gold Price Forecast XAU/USD

Forex World News | Gold Price Forecast XAU/USD

Date : 2021 / 06 / 29

Gold rebounds from intraday low, prints two-day downtrend.

 

Update: Gold added to the previous day’s modest losses and witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The steady decline extended through the first half of the European session and dragged the XAU/USD to over one-week lows, around the $1,768 region in the last hour.

Despite mixed signals on the US inflation, investors have been betting on the prospects for an early move by the Fed to tighten its monetary policy. Apart from this, concerns about the spread of the more contagious Delta strain of the coronavirus acted as a tailwind for the US dollar and weighed on dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.

Technical analysis

 

Gold fades the breakout of the two-week-old falling trend line, portrayed the previous day, amid downbeat MACD signals. Also challenging the gold sellers is the 50-SMA and a descending resistance line from June 18.

That said, the latest bounce could be ignored until staying below the $1,782 resistance line while odds of its battle to a 50-SMA level of $1,780 can’t be ruled out.

It should, however, be noted that a clear break of $1,782 will aim for the $1,800 threshold whereas any further upside will be tamed by the prior support line from June 04, surrounding $1,827.

On the contrary, the immediate resistance-turned-support line near $1,769 holds the key to gold’s fresh downside targeting the monthly low near $1,761.

During the quote’s further weakness past $1,761, March’s top close to $1,755 may test the gold bears before directing them to the mid-April lows near $1,723.

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Forex World News : Gold Futures Downside seen limited

Forex World News | Gold Futures Downside seen limited

Date : 2021 / 06 / 23

Gold remains supported around $1,760

Tuesday’s downtick in gold prices was amidst shrinking open interest and volume, leaving the probability of a deeper pullback not favoured in the very near term. That said, the $1,760 mark per ounce troy continues to hold the downside for the time being. Occasional bullish attempts are expected to meet the next hurdle at the $1,800 mark.

Traders trimmed their open interest positions in gold futures markets for yet another session on Tuesday, this time by around 2.6K contracts according to flash data from CME Group. It is worth noting that the downtrend in open interest is in place since June 11. In the same line, volume shrank for the third session in a row, now by around 23.6K contracts.

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Forex World News : US Dollar Index pushes higher

Forex World News : US Dollar Index pushes higher

Date : 2021 / 06 / 17

US Dollar Index bid post-Fed

 

The index is up for the third session in a row on Thursday and advances past the key 200-day SMA (91.51), all following Wednesday’s FOMC event.

In fact, the Fed brough forward any chances of starting the tapering talk at its meeting on Wednesday, while the “dots plot” now projects two interest rate hikes by end of 2023. Regarding inflation, the Fed sticks to the view that consumer prices will return to the target at some point in 2022.

In the wake of the Fed’s meeting, yields of the key US 10-year reference leapt to the vicinity of 1.60% from sub-1.50% levels, while the 5-year breakeven eased to 2.41%.

What to look for around USD

The index jumped beyond the 91.00 mark in the wake of the unexpected upbeat tone from the FOMC event on Wednesday. The likeliness that the tapering talk could kick in before anyone has anticipated and the views of higher rates by end of 2023 fuel the change of heart in the buck and the upside in DXY to levels last seen in mid-April. However, the still unchanged view on “transient” higher inflation and hence the continuation of the dovish stance by the Federal Reserve carries the potential to temper the current momentum in the dollar. A sustained break above the critical 200-day SMA should shift the dollar’s outlook to a more constructive one.

Key events in the US this week: Initial Claims, Philly Fed Index (Thursday).

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Forex World News : Inflation fails to lift dollar

Forex World News : Dollar bounces higher as traders brace for inflation data

Date : 2021 / 06 / 11

Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 11:

Markets sustain the upbeat mood and the dollar remains range-bound despite strong inflation numbers. The focus shifts to US Consumer Confidence as well as potential progress in bipartisan talks. A delay of the UK’s reopening is weighing on sterling, oil extends its gains and cryptocurrencies are consolidaing. 

The S&P 500 Index hit yet another record high on Wednesday as investors shrugged off fears the jump in headline inflation to 5%, the highest since 2008. Markets seem convinced that the Federal Reserve would see through rising prices and continue labeling inflation as transitory. 

 

US 10-year bond yields tumbled well below 1.50%, dragging the dollar down with them.  

EUR/USD is changing hands near 1.22 despite the European Central Bank’s decision to keep the pace of bond buying elevated. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that it is premature to talk about exiting the QE program. The bank also upgraded its growth forecasts, as expected.

GBP/USD is hovering under 1.42 amid ongoing Brexit acrimony and reports that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will delay the reopening by four weeks. The last stage of returning to normal is scheduled for June 21 but the fast spread of the Delta variant has pushed policymakers to change their minds. 

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Forex World News : Gold Futures extra upside

Forex World News : Gold Futures extra upside

Date : 2021 / 06 / 11

Gold now targets monthly highs near $1,915

Thursday’s uptick in gold prices was on the back of rising open interest and volume, exposing the continuation of the uptrend in the very near term with the immediate target at the June peaks around $1,915 per ounce troy (June 1).

Open interest in gold futures markets went up for yet another session according to preliminary data from CME Group on Thursday, this time by around 5.3K contracts. Volume followed suit and rose by around 110.5K contracts, reversing the previous daily drop.

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